General Elections 2019 and HX Program

There will be General Elections in Finland in Spring and polling in beginning of December shows a strong possibility of an Socialist Prime minister. This one done by YLE. This could pave the way for Green-Red coalition government, which would make strange contortions in HX program, considering what two of the most likely coalition partners feel about HX-program in particular and “bad orange man and USA” in general

The party Vasemmistoliitto (Communists Lite) has made noices that amount of HX planes should be dropped to “36 or so” Their chair Ms Li Andersson feels the number of 64 HX fighters means getting ready for offensive war operations. (offensive war was her exact wording). Another dame in Left  Annika Lapintie feels the same. On the other hand Right wing parties that are currently in power have announced that agreeing to 64 HX fighters is a must if one wants to be in government.

Update on 17th December: A professor of economics Dr Roope Uusitalo, thinks Airforce should only get something in order of 47 multirole fighters.  Because of austerity reasons.  He also points out that number of “64 is just arbitrary”. This is of course false. The Soviet Dictator Josef Stalin came to that conclusion by carefully considering what number of fighters can be quickly disposed of when they want to take over the country. So real number should be more than a hundred, as the experts of the field say.

These cries about revanshionist warfare might just be rethorics to appease own woting base and Kremlin Czar Mr Putin. But what would this mean in context of HX-Program?

First of all this would be good news for SAAB. SAAB is Swedish and, as long as Finnish lefties and greenies are considered, Sweden can do no wrong and  so by extension SAAB. But as I have pointed out 64 is too few platforms for Finland, so 36 would be even more too few, and thus maybe things would not be as interesting for SAAB. Also this would hike up per unit cost for Finns because you would still build the factory and support system in Finland.

News would be good for Dassault and Rafale as well, but maybe not quite so good as to Swedes. As Britain is the prime contractor for Euro-fighter Typhoon that might spell some difficulties, but Germany, Spain and Italy would also exert pressure for Finns. I feel that this would, without a doubt, better situation for all European competitors. Internal pressure would maybe favor SAAB and “soft and cuddly NATO” with Sweden. External EU pressure might be split between France and Germany (plus Spain and Italy) by EU common procurement. “Other pressure” from UK, with whom there is defense co-operation.

These news would be really bad for F-35 A and F/A-18 E/F/G Super Hornet, because President Trump will still be in office until 2024 if miracles don’t happen. (No I do not believe YLEs and European Liberal Lefts views of “bad orange man”. I believe in month by month approval rating. THAT seems to be in President Trumps favor as of December 2018) And by contrary he can do no right if Leftie-Greenies are concerned in Europe. So This might be a considerable obstacle in when final decisions are being made.

But, how ever you cut it, 64 planes are just not enough for defense of Finland.

 

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Terrori-iskuissa ollaan siirtymässä kuorma-auto iskuista linja-auto iskuihin?

YLE raportoi tänään 5.12.2018 kahdesta tapauksesta Etelä-Suomessa, joissa ulkomaalaisperäinen matkustaja on tarttunut bussin rattiin tai kuljettajaan ja yrittänyt saada bussin suistumaan ojaan tai muiden tienkäyttäjien päälle. Tällä hetkellä ei ole tietoa tuntevatko nämä terrori-iskun yrittäjät toisiaan vai eivät. Molemmat ovat poliisin huomassa.

En jaksa uskoa että “sattumalta” ja “yksittäistapauksena, josta ei voi vetää johtopäätöksiä” sattuu niin, että kahdella eri paikkakunnalla yritetään samansuuntaista iskua peräkkäisinä päivinä. Poliisi tutkii asiaa, mutta en jaksa uskoa kolmeen sattumaan peräkkäin. Kyseessä ei ole ollut humalaisen toikkarointi sisääntulosillalla, joka on puuttunut bussikuskin töihin, vaan varta vasten yritetystä ajoneuvon suistamisesta.

ISIKsen tiedotuslehti Al-Rumiya ei näy Suomessa ilman luovaa internetin, ja TOR verkon, käyttöä, joten en tiedä onko ISIS kehottanut tämäntapaisten iskujen tekoon. Kuitenkin kannattaa muistaa Al-Rumiyan aikaisemmista numeroista, että lehdessä on erityisesti mainittu sauvakävelijöiden kimppuun käyminen sopivana terrori-iskun tekotapana. Edelleen, vaikka Suomessa yritettiin viralliselta taholta asia kiistään, on 2015 pakolaisvirran mukava tullut noin 1% terroristejä Suomeen. Koskapa pakolaisia tuli 2015 noin 30000, on Suomessa kolmisensataa enemmän tai vähemmän kovan linjan Teroa vaanimassa ja/tai aktivointia odottamassa.

Tutkimuksissa vedotaan terrori-iskuissa mukana olleiden pakolaisvirrassa tulleiden alhaiseen määrään iskuissa, mutta ajan kuluessa heidän osallisuutensa, kuten esimerkiksi Turun iskussa, on kasvanut. Jostain syystä tuoreimmat tutkimukset aiheesta ovat 2017 vuodelta, joka herättää hieman kummastusta valppaassa turvallisuusblokkarissa: Onko sitten frekvenssin lisääntyminen aiheuttanut sen, että ei suotavia tuloksia ei haluta julkisuuteen, vai miksi asia ei ole ollut enää kiinnostava tutkijoiden mielestä?

Eli Terrorismi Suomessa on astumassa uuteen vaiheeseen: Saapa nähdä mitä poliisi tiedottaa asiasta!

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OLIGHTin PL-mini Valkyrie asevalo.

Kävin loka-marraskuun vaihteessa vähän valokaupoilla perinteistä SRA pimeäkisaa varten ja hommasin kerrankin aitoa tavaraa Lumisesta Rovaniemeltä. Olen pitempään miettinyt oikean dedikoidun asevalon hommaamista pistooliin ja nyt se tuli sitten ajankohtaiseksi. Valinta päätyi otsikossa mainittuun Olightin ajatuksen pistoolivalosta.

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Kuten näkyy Olight menee nätisti paikalleen myös HS-9 Tacticalin kiskopaikaan, ja virtakytin tulee hyvin hollille liipasinkaaren viereen. Valkyriessä on pakkauksessa kiinn ns Glock kiskopalikat, ja ne kävivät heittämällä myös omaan kilpavehkeeseen.

Olight PL-mini Valkyrie on melko pieni valo ja siinä on pikalukko kiskoon kiinnitystä varten. Pakkaus antaa mitoiksi pituus 61,2 mm, leveys 31,2 mm ja korkeus 26,9 mm.  Painoa kapistuksella on 60g. Valo on tosiaankin melko pieni, ja siksi akun kesto on “vaatimatamaton” 70 minuuttia. Oikeasti paloaika on melko ruhtinaallinen asevalon käyttöä ajatellen: Kyllä 70 minuutin ajan kanssa tutkii jo isommankin rakennuskompleksin asevalo päällä. Valovoimaa samainen paketti lupaa maksimissaan 400 lumenia himmentyen noin 60 akun loppuessa. Äärikantamaksi annetaan 75 metriä, ja edelleen valmistaja lupaa IPX6 kosteuden siedon.

Virtakytkin on keinukytkin ja siinä on vain päälle/pois toiminto. Mikä on ehkä se suurin tarkkuus ja toiminnallisuus, mitä tämäntyyppiseltä vehkeeltä kannattaa odottaa: Etusormella olisi hyvin vaikeaa painella/keikautella erilaisia sarjoja, joilla erilaisia valotehoja ja muita “hienoja judansseja”®  saataisiin toimintaan. Pidettäessä kytkinta alhaalla valo palaa koko ajan. Minusta tämä on aikalailla turha ominaisuus, koska jos pidettyäsi liipasinsormella kytkintä alhaalla siirrät sormen liipasimelle valo sammuu, tai joudut vähintään painamaan valokytkintä uudelleen päästääksesi tähtäätään. Molemmat tavat vievät aikaa ja saattavat olla stressitilanteessa vaikeita suorituksia.

Koskapa linssi on pieni ja cree ledi hyvin lähellä sitä, on valokimpun keskitys vaikeaa. Tosin valokimppu ei saa olla liian pienikään, joska hyvin kapealla lyijykynämäisellä säteellä on se huono puoli, että ihminen alkaa tuijottaa silloin kapean tunnelin läpi, ja ei näe mitään valonsäteen ulkopuolelle. Siinä mielessä Olightin suhteellisen kapea valokimppu, leveä valon ja vielä leveämpi puolivarjon alue antaa mahdollisuuden katsella myös kapean valokimpun ulkuolelle ja parantaa siten tilannetietoisuutta.

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Kuvassa näkyy aika hyvin kirkas alue, valon alue ja puolivarjo.  

Mittasin huvikseni seinää vasten, kuinka paljon valokimppu aukeaa. Mitat, jos joitakuita kiinnostaa, ovat etäisyys seinästä 8cm, Puolivarjon halkaisija 16,5cm, valon alueen halkaisija 12cm, ja valopisteen halkaisija 3cm. Valopisteelle sädekimppu aukeaa noin 20 asteen kulmassa, valon alueelle noin 112 asteen kulmassa, ja puolivarjon ääripäihin noin 130 asteen kulmassa. [Jos haluat tarkemmat arvot niin trigonometrian kirja käteen ja laskemaan tangenteista tarkat arvot! 8), mutta veikkaan että ei mitaustarkkuus viivottimella huomioon ottaen, ei uusi laskeminen paljon parempaa arvoa anna.]

Normaaleille ampumamatkoille pistoolille, alle 20 metriin, 400 lumenin valovoima riittää mukavasti. Valokimpun hajoaminen noinkin nopeasti antaa ampujalle tähtäinkuvan helposti. Tosin epäilen, että pidemmille matkoille tähtäimet edelleen hukkuvat pimeään. Juuri tuon valokimpun nopean hajoamisen takia valon intensiteetti hukkuu nopeasti alati kasvavaan valaistun alueen pinta-alaan.

Metrissä valopisteen halkaisija on jo 72cm, ja valopisteen pinta-ala on 0,42 m² ja 5 m päässä halkaisija 362 cm, ja pinta-ala 10,4 m². Tästä on helppo ymmärtää että valon intensiteetti laskee samassa suhteessa eli intensiteetti laskee alle 5%iin viiden metrin päässä. Siinä mielessä laatikon ilmoittamaa 75 metrin valokantaa voi pitää “äärimmäisen optimistisena”.

Magneetilla toimiva latauskohta valon pinnassa on hyvä idea: Laitetaan piuha vain kiinni sopivaan, esimerkiksi kännykän, laturiin, ja asevalon akku on latautunut alle tunnissa. Kauneusvirheenä voinee pitää sitä, että kamppeelle luvataan 2 v takuu, mutta epäilen että tämä johtuu akun vaihtamisen mahdottomuudesta tähän värkkiin.

Summa summarum: Aivan käyttökelpoinen pistoolin asevalo. Hyviä ominaisuuksia ovat  lataustapa, nopeasti aukeava valokimppu lyhyillä matkoilla, ja pikalukitteinen kiinnitys. Huonoksi ominaisuudeksi väitän vain pitkille matkoille liian nopeasti aukeavan sädekimpun ja siihennähden ehkä hieman keveän lumeni määrän. Mutta fysiikassa lakeihin ei saa poikkeuslupia, joten hyvien ominaisuuksien kanssa on otettava vastaan myös ne hyvistä ominaisuukista johtuvat huonot puolet.  

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Armytek Wizard, reservitaistelijan johtotähti, ja lamppu jota Gandalfkin käyttäisi.

TomiWizardPaassaBlurrattuOstin kyseisen Wizard v3 otsalampun loka-marraskuun vaihteessa tulevia zombiemetsästyksiä varten. Varsinaisesti olin menossa vain asevaloa hakemaan, mutta kun tuli vastaan sopivassa paikassa ja sopivalla hinnalla, niin otin kuleksimasta Rovaniemen Lumisesta.

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Wizard on kunnon kokoinen ja painoinen värkki. Wizard tarjoaa pikkuveli Elfiä nohevammat ominaisuudet ulkonaliikkujalle.

Tarve moiselle kamppeelle syntyi, kun “kiinalaisesta ihmeestä” oli hukkunut patterikotelon takakansi, ja uutta otsalamppua oli siis tarve saada. Ja vaikka täytyy myöntää, että Kiinan vekottimella oli kunnioitettava valoteho ja halpa hinta, niin ei sen kanssa kuitenkaan ehkä ainoataan haluaisi laittaa peliin. Sensijaan Armytekin jannut Kanadassa ovat tehneet jämäkänoloisen vehkeen kotiseutukommandon käyttää. Armytek Wizard on kunnolla tehdyn tuntuinen ja jämäkän oloinen kampe, jolla on aivan riittävän kattavat säädöt sitä mainittua reservin taistelijaa ajatellen.

Wizard on USBllä magneettipäällä ladattava, ja syö 3,7v 3400 mAh akkuja (tyyppi 18650), joten jos useampia akkujan on, on tämmöinen pikalatausmahdollisuus olemassa. Muuten magneetipäinen USB laturi käy kiinni  standardiin USB päähän ja lataa vehkeen käyttövalmiiksi sen mukaan mitä laturi mAh:ta pukkaa. Normi kännykkälaturilla lataus kestää noin kolme ja puoli tuntia ja ns “Tablettilaturilla” vajaat kaksi tuntia.

Paras ominaisuus Wizardissa on kattavat valovoimat. Heikoimmalla “kuunvalo” tai “tulikärpänen” asetuksilla, se ei pimeässäkään häikäise keskustelukumppania, ja on huomattavan huomaamaton vaihtoehto metsässä kävelyyn: Valoa ei juuri tule, mutta valaisee juuri sen verran että näkee minne koipensa lykkää. Kännykän kamera on senverran aneeminen, että sillä ei juuri ja juuri havaittaa kuunvalomoodia saa näkymään allaolevassa videossa.

 

Kirkkaimmillaan noin 1000 lumen voima on “ihan tarpeeksi” ja silloinkin linssin hyvä muotoilu ja suunnittelu siroaa valoa noin 30 astetta kirkkaan pisteen ulkopuolelle, joten vaikutelmaa kirkkaan tunnelin sisälle katsomisesta ei tule. Takuuta Armytek lupaa 10 vuotta, ja voisin kuvitella vempaimen sen kestävän käpisteltyäni sitä. Akkuhan on se “huonoin” osa valossa, ja sen saa vaihdettua, joten akun tuhoutumisen takia ei vehjettä tarvitse hävittää. Kunhan muistaa poistaa akun laitteesta kesäksi.

Mekaanisestä kestävyydestä kertovat myös pudotuskorkeus 5m ja upotussyvyys 10 metriä. Kanadalaiset ovat brosyyriensä mukaan lähteneet tekemään maailman parasta valaisinta ja ovat, jos eivät onnistuneet, niin päässeet ainakin todella lähelle maalia.

 

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Scenario 1: Rafales to Rescue

The Rafales for the Rescue

The base scenario can be read from HERE and other instalments of scenario can be read also: Gripen, F/A-18 E/F/G, Eurofighter Typhoon and Lockheed F-35.

Disclaimer: I work with open sources, and have not any knowledge about HX-programs scenarios. So as to accuracy of these predictions is low to moderate at the best.

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Rafale in ACE 2017 in Rovaniemi photo: Tomi Hämäläinen

Rafale’s loadout:

(Dassault did not comment if Rafale will carry Meteors in twin pods like Gripen is going to do, and Meteor may end up only be carried in right and left fuselage after positions. Dassault is offering foreign air forces the possibility of loading four Meteors (France is going to do with two) Even though Rafale has whooping 14 hard points, out of these five are wet/heavy type of positions. Wingtips and exterior wing pylons are rated for about 120 kg weight, and can thus carry only different AA missiles. (MICA, Sidewinder, ASRAAM, PYTHON)

Number of pylons is important because even though the pylons cannot/are not usually be loaded to max. Different weapons weight differently and desired effects in target have to be considered in loading up the bird.

Dassault has not been very forthcoming with loading options, and for example, did not reveal if there is a twin pylon capable of carrying two METEORS in pipeline. NOr does it seem that there is twin pylon for MICA either. There would be room in outer wing position, but none of my open sources can confirm if the position is rated to anything more than approximately 120kg.

Other than that Rafale can carry astonishing 10 tons of ordnance

WT EX MD IN Aft Fwd CenF CenA Fwd Aft IN MD EX WT
Mica Mica Meteor Exocet Meteor Recon 3000l drop tank Meteor Exocet Meteor Mica Mica

Rafale’s OSF and RBE 2 Radar are really good, but Rafale lacks the two-way interface with Meteor, which will hamper meteor’s performance somewhat. In paper RBE 2 radar can guide simultaneously up to 8 missiles, but that may not be tactically feasible use of missiles. and will cut down the sending power available to each guidance instance.

Each Rafale fighter in Fourship carry

  • 4 METEOR
  • 4 MICA
  • 2 Exocet
  • 3000l droptank
  • Reco or Litening pod

So close to 5600kg of stuff, or about 55% of maximum load of the craft. Rafales will be plenty maneuverable with these loads. Also combination of four MICA and four METEOR give robust long range performance for the fourship.

 

Russian Suhoi SU-35 fighters have the edge in speed and in altitude, but their IRBIS-E PESA radars may well be unable to pick Rafales in heavy EW environment with SPECTRE DASS jamming the Russian planes. And also because out of HX candidates Rafale is the second most stealthy option. Particularly against IR domain. Russians’ big Saturn engines on the other hand give nice visible heat bloom against cold space and are thus quite early picked up by OSF optic system. The Optronic capabilities are further enhanced by MICA IR’s capability to feedback information to the plane via pylon, givin in essence Rafale a extremely good IRST capability. This feedback to Modular Data Processing Unit is indeed great boon for Rafale as this gives fighter multiple infrared arrays to pick up heat from, and makes triangulation of targets faster. This type of technology was not possible earlier because earlier generations of heat seeking missiles relied of nitrogen cooled seekers that ran out of juice and burned up if few tens of seconds.

Meteor as a missile gives quite decisive edge with its enormous no-escape zone. I have even seen range quotas for Meteor going as far as 300km. But I take more conservative about 200km range, and “official” 60km No-Escape zone. MICA missiles give a good account as well being stealthy on launch and very maneuverable. While being BVR missiles MICAs are still very maneuverable and thus capable of being used from quite close in all the way to BVR distances.

All Russian fighters are coming toward Finnish mainland from S to SW orientation, with other Russian fighters beyond border making moves so that DCA fighters to the east will not be able to help out in Archipelago sea. Finns try to maneuver into position to get launches toward transports, and thus spread their formation to more loose one. Russians on the other hand will try to screen their transports so that para drop can be successfully accomplished. The aerial battle will be over under 10 minutes. Rafales extremely good RBE 2 radar and , missiles (Meteor 200km at altitude vs 110 km for R-77-1 vs 60km for MICA ) and SPECTRE EW equipment will see that they will emerge victorious from the fray against kinematically superior Suhois.

Rafales get to launch at 11.21 pretty much as soon as they get airborne from Pirkkala AFB, and targets at about 150 km, at that range and against ground clutter Suhois will not be able to pick up the fourship when SPECTRES are deteriorating IRBIS radar performance. Even though RAFALES could shoot all their METEORS at once, that might not be wise as that would cut down the availability of missile in end game. Finns need to cut swathe closer to be able to get a shot against the transports as force Russians to yield space to Finns.

Finns launch first salvo at 1121. This will be 8 Meteor missiles. Which will fly at about 4 mach towards Suhois doing about 1 mach towards them. This combines to about 100 km per minute closing speed. This gives missiles about 80 seconds of flight time. Range is so long that Suhois will likely miss the launches and guidance for missiles in route. Rafales will continue to follow the missiles to get a shot on transports. With this kind of parasitic drag due stores, it is probable that Rafales cannot quite supercruise.

First salvo of 8 Meteors score hits on Suhois over the sea. (Because of one way dataling between Meteors and Rafales, I rate the kill probability a bit lower as 50%. I have not read on any source that this would change with Rafale FR 4). Three Suhois drop into the sea below between Houtskari and Kumlinge from fourship that is vectoring towards Kustavi and one from fourship flying between Nauvo and Kemiönsaari.

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1123 hours. situation

Nevertheless in about 80 km distance Russians’ SU-35 Irbis radars start to burn through the jamming and they get to launch too. That is however too little too late, as Meteors are getting within striking distance about that time. At 11.22,20 approximately, Russian don’t even necessarily know they have been fired upon until Meteors come in range. Russians are either forced to maneuver to make missiles miss, which may well be futile, or try to jam the missile and get own launches. Russians lose 5 planes in first exchange. But as they have had to launch from extreme range Finns avoid the salvo quite handily with Spectre system and chaff and flares.

Rafales launch second volley of 8 missiles at four transports over Mainland Åland and fighter between the Finns and the transports. Due the range and in route course updating for missiles it is possible to divert missiles against three fighters flying over Kaarina area as well. Flight time against last remaining fighter in between Houtskari and Iniö is around 60 seconds. Suhoi 35 sees the Rafales and shoots 8 of its 12 missiles. four IR and four Radar. Unfortunately the fighter is hit before it has a chance to guide its missiles to targets and thus Rafales have no problems maneuvering so that they are not picked up in missiles radars that activate around 20 km out of target. Flight time to transports is about 80 seconds and as they are for all practical purposes immobile targets all four are splashed. Also one Suhoi is downed from three planes flying near Kaarina.

at 1123 Finns split up as two pairs to get shooting angles on remaining Suhois in southern Finland. All the Meteors are gone but MICAs can see the situation through. Rafales and Suhois get to launch at about the same time, and as range is under 50km all missiles are within very effective range. first Rafale pair flying toward Masku fire three MICAS at two fighters nearing Kaarina. Suhois launch salvo of four missiles. Rafales have still the edge as they have AESA radars and suhois have PESA radars, so Rafale SPECTRA has a good chance of fooling the missile guidance and may be able to escape the bad situation. Rafales score two hits and and one R-77 detonates so close to Rafale 2 that Rafale is damaged and needs to find emergency landing spot.

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Rafales have split up. More missile exchange ensues.

Other pair vectoring towards Koski launches six MICAS against four Suhois there. Four Suhois launch 4 R-77 in return. there are three IR and three Radar guided MICAs on way. number four Rafale is hit and destroyed. and Rafales score three hits on Suhois.

Rafale #3 turns toward Loimaa and tries to escape and Rafale #1 turn toward remaining Suhoi. and fires two out of its remaining three missiles at Suhoi and down it from about 20 km out.

The westernmost fourship of Suhois decides to call it a day and turn back south to avoid Rafales. As there are not missiles with sufficient range to do anything about it Finns get slowly back into formation and start to scan the seas for targets.

Finns fly over the Åland mainland and scan the sea for possible targets. Fighters pick up three fast moving targets heading towards islands. Targets are three Zubr class Air cushioned landing craft. Two Rafales launch four EXOCET missiles towards the craft. The missiles are picked up by the Zubrs AD radars and landing craft start evasive maneuvering and prepare to use CIVS system, against the missiles. Saturation attack is successful and manages to burn through the CIWS and AA missile defense and hits are scored on the Zubrs with one sinking. another one limps along and one gets to go into Mainland Åland unharmed.

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Light fighter answer: The Gripens swoop in.

 

The four Gripens rushing towards Åland islands are loaded for Defensive counter air (DCA) /maritime strike package. Thus number of AA missiles is to kept as high as possible, and then give some thought for anti ship missiles. dsc_0321

 

 

Loadout is as follows:

  • Gripen 1 & 3
    • 2x IRIS-T VVR missile 25km range
    • 6x METEOR BVR missile >200km range
    • 2x RBS-15 missile
    • 1100l drop tank
    • AREXIS pod
  • Gripen 2 & 4
    • 2x IRIS-T VVR missile 25km range
    • 6x METEOR BVR missile >200km range
    • 2x RBS-15 missile
    • 1100l drop tank.
    • LITENING III targeting pod

All four  carry about 4100kgs of armaments. so about 2/3 of full load

One and three fighters in fourship is carrying AREXIS EW pod, two and four Litening III pods. RBS-15 is a Swedish Anti-Ship missile. There would be a Norwegian NSM missile also, but I dont see FAF going to third ASM provider now. Four Gripens bring into the fight 24 meteors and 8 IRIS-Ts. Fighters were just taking off from Pirkkala AF base, and turn to head into the Archipelago sea. The Russians are loaded for offensive counter air with R-27 (AA-10 Alamo) missiles with range of approximately 130km at altitude. And  R-73 AA-11 Archer short range missiles.

Russian Suhoi SU-35 fighters have the edge in speed and in altitude, but their IRBIS-E PESA radars may well be unable to pick JAS-39E Gripens in heavy EW environment with Raven AESA radars and AREXIS pods jamming the Russian planes. Russians big Saturn engines on the other hand give nice visible heat bloom against cold space and are thus quite early picked up by Skyward-G IRST optic system. Meteor as a missile gives quite decisive edge with its enormous no-escape zone.

All Russian fighters are coming toward Finnish mainland from S to SW orientation, with other Russian fighters beyond border making moves so that DCA fighters to the east will not be able to help out in Archipelago sea. Finns try to maneuver into position to get launches toward transports, and thus spread their formation to more loose one. Russians on the other hand will try to screen their transports so that para drop can be successfully accomplished. The aerial battle will be over under 10 minutes. Gripens’ better radars, missiles (Meteor 320km at altitude vs 110 km for R-77-1) and EW equipment will see that they will emerge victorious from the fray against kinematically superior Suhois.

Gripens get to launch at 11.21 pretty much as soon as they get targets at about 150 km, and force Russians to yield space to Finns. First salvo will be 8 Meteor missiles. Which will fly at about 4 mach towards fighters doing about 1 mach towards them This combines to about 100km per minute closing speed. This gives missiles minute and 20 seconds of flight time. Nevertheless in about 100 km distance Russians’ SU-35 Irbis radars start to burn through the jamming and they get to launch too. That is however too little too late, as Meteors are getting within striking distance about that time. At 11.22,20 approximately, Russian don’t even necessarily know they have been fired upon until Meteors come in range. Russians are either forced to maneuver to make missiles miss, which may well be futile, or try to jam the missile and get own launches. Russians lose 5 planes in first exchange. (for about 63% hit rate, which may seem a bit low, but I cannot bringmyself to believe in 100% hit rate. Considering that for BVR AAM’s have consistently shoved about 5%-15% hit rate when fired in anger against reasonable competent adversary.) Five Sukhois drop into the sea between Nauvo and Houtskar islands. But as they have had to launch from extreme range Finns avoid the salvo quite handily.

However, this takes valuable time from the Finns as they should be concentrating on fires against the enemy transports. Russians get some launches and Finns have to maneuver away to avoid the salvo and turn toward North-West to get separation. 11.23 Finns turn back towards Åland to get in another salvo of 8 missiles in. Russians launch immediately when they realize that 1st salvo will miss, and Finns have to try to beat the incoming salvo by maneuvering and EW systems because of range has diminished to about 50 km. and missiles take about 30 seconds to reach targets. Finns score another 5 hits, but burn fuel and time avoiding the Russian R-77-1 missiles. Russian planes drop to approximately Kustavi-Kaarina line and around Turku. Russians hear that the transports are staring the parachute drops and thus fire another salvo to force Finns away once again. This time one R-77 detonates close enough to Gripen two to damage it and force it to return to Pirkkala base. Last two Russians from Eastern screen turn tail and run with their greater speed from the area.

Third Finnish salvo 4 Meteor scores another 3 hits and as the sky is clear from Russian fighter screen in the west, three remaining Gripen Es start toward Åland mainland again. They fire last two Meteor missiles against transports about 150km away and bring down two, but troops are already in ground.

Finns fly over the Åland mainland and scan the sea for possible targets. Fighters pick up three fast moving targets heading towards islands and get permission to fire. Targets are three Zubr class Air cushioned landing craft. Three Gripen E’s fire six of their RBS-15s missiles towards the craft. The missiles are picked up by the Zubrs AD radars and landing craft start evasive maneuvering and prepare to use CIVS system, against the missiles. Saturation attack is successful and manages to burn through the CIWS and AA missile defense and hits are scored on the Zubrs with one sinking. Two more limp along and manage to get into mainland Åland.

Next up will be the Rafales.

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The HX scenarios, a guess what they might be

First a disclaimer: Nobody has discussed the actual HX scenarios with me. These are my somewhat educated guesses what they might be, and what the strenghts of each HX contender in given scenario might be. Further as a basis of the scenario I have selected the RAND scenario of mounting tension with NATO and Russia over Baltic states and the operations that would stem from this.

If you are interested there is a quite extensive piece of russian power in Finnish close areas in YLE. The HX candidates are set into this scenario in no particular order, only as whim takes me and data of HX candidates becomes available. As fitting for so called multi/omni/swing role fighters are fighters are equipped mostly the same, even though this might not make perfectly sense. My blog: my rules.

Scenario 1. The Defense of Åland Islands.

Background: The new cold war has escalated in Northern Europe, and there begin to be ral concerns of war. Finland and Sweden are still neutral, but stille leaning more toward west in their political stance. Finns have completed the HX program, and have about 48 HX planes and weaponry already available in country.

As Russia seeks to grasp the Baltic states and force NATO’s Article 5 as null, she needs to isolate Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from rest of the NATO as tightly as possible. This will revolve around the success of taking Gotland from Sweden and Åland islands from Finland. I will largely leave the Gotland direction out of this even though it will be maybe more of a value to Russia than Åland islands, but as we are discussing the part HX has to play in the defense, it is of lesser importance for us.

As NATO will start concentrating air power to southern Sweden and Stockholm area, it will be imperative to harass the airpower on its way to baltics and back to limit the stores they can carry and force them to maneuver to cut down the time they cans spend in defense of B3 states. Finland as a sovereign State must defend the Åland and its airspace to prevent the battles to fought in Finnish soil. This has to be more than token resistance in order not to antagonize NATO powers. Token resistance would mean that combat would take place in Finnish aerospace and lead to strikes against Finnish airfields by one party or the another.

Scenario: Twice Red Banner Baltic Fleet is responsible of taking over the Gotland and Åland Islands. the 336th Guards amphibious brigade loaded into vessels of 71st Red Star Landing ship brigades’ vessels. Baltic fleet is supported in this by the 76th Air Assault Division. The 76th is responsible of taking over the Gotland with two regiments and Air two air defence battalions. These will be reinforced by S-400 division in Gotland by sea.

At on about the same time Åland will be beached by 336th Guards Naval Infantry brigade, since Finnish response will be more limited and slower due lack of submarines and relative distance from principal AF bases from the Archipelago sea. Combined with Ålanders reluctance of having FDF forces present in islands during peacetime. Not to mention in times when there are definite threat of invasion. Russia will support these landings with AF action both in baltic and along Finnish-Russian border to keep FAFs ability to come into play in Ålands to a minimum. Initial operation will start by elements 76th Air Assault div being dropped to Marienhamn and vicinity, to gain foothold of islands principal harbour and airfield.

At the beginning of scenario Russian forces are airborne and violate Finnish Aerospace at 11.20 in morning. Also the 3 hovercraft are coming in fast carrying light armor and naval infantry Russian air element is mix of transports (4-6) and protecting fighters (12-16 MiG-35s and SU-35s). More fighters, at least two pairs, are airborne behind Finnish eastern border.

FAF has three flights airborne one in the north, one in east and one moving toward the Archipelago sea from base in Tampere.

Let the scenario unfold:

 

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