Gripen E:n julkkarit 18.5.2016

Ruotsalaiset tekivät julkaisusta hienon shown, olisipa ollut hieno olla paikan päällä. Erityisesti jäi mietityttämään, tässä vaiheessa, tämä SAABin E-stealth konsepti. ILMEISESTI, en tiedä, en ole nähnyt dokumentaatiota enkä muutoinkaan päässyt tutustumaan Gripenin ELSO komponentteihin.

MUTTA juontajat tuntuivat viittaavan sopivalla hetkellä sopivan signaalin lähettämiseen, niin että tutkan aalto, sanotaan tässä aalto A saadaan törmäämään Gripenin lähettämään aaltoon Bhen sellaisella hetkellä, että B aalto heikentää A signaalia. Eli matematiikassa saataisiin yhtälö A, B=-A –>A+B=0. Mutta tämä vaatii tehokkaan tietokoneen ohjaamaan toimintaa. Pahimmillaan, jos kaikki lähetyksessä menee persiilleen, niin B ei olekaan A negaatio, vaan vahvistaa A-aaltoa.  Tutka aallot ovat siniaaltoja, jotka käyttäytyvät täysin ennustettavasti ajan ja matkan funktioina.

Sinänsä homma on “helppoa” mutta vaatii hyvin synkronissa olevaa tietokone-lähetin komboa. Tietokoneiden laskentatehot ovat sellaisia, että valo ehtii kulkea enään muutamia senttejä yhden “laskun” aikana, joten tämmöinen lähettimellä hämääminen on tullut mahdolliseksi. Tietenkin niin että milliaaltoja voidaan hämätä millitutkilla, ja desimetriaaltoja desimetritutkilla.

Webcast nauhoitus.

Itse aion lueskella tästä asiasta lisää, kun pääsen lomille.

Posted in HX-ohjelma | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Kylmä tuuli puhaltaa Hautakeroilta; Haudanhaamut “kumpujen yöstä”

Kylmän sodan Suomen takuumiehet, Erkki Tuomioja ja Risto Volanen pyrkivät edelleen ylläpitämään Suomen de facto kuulumista Neuv.. Venäjän etupiiriin. Vaikka ns. Puolueettomuus oli “ihan hyvä” ratkaisu 1945-1990, aika ja strategiset realiteetit ovat ajaneet sen ohi.

2016 Strategiset realiteetit ovat ne, että NATO on laajentunut balttien, ja meidänkin onneksemme, vaikkei se V:stä ja T:stä siltä tunnu, Baltian maihin. Muinoin mahtava VArsovan liitto on hajonnut omaan kuristavaan pakkovaltaansa. Venäjä on taantunut, ja taantuu edelleen kolmannen luokan supervallaksi.Venäjän väestö ikääntyy ja pienenee, kleptokratia kurjistaa mitä vähäistä keskiluokkaan on ja pitää köyhäillistön kurjuudessa. Väestö ikääntyy, ja ei uusiinnu. Kiina painostaa idästäpäin. Supervallan tunnusmerkistöstä on jäjellä oikeaastaan enään monipuolinen strateginen aseistus ballistisiin maalta ja mereltä laukaistaviin ohjuksiin, sekä pommittajiin sijoitettuna. Keskiluokan kurjana pitäminen on mahdollistanut monipuolisen asetutkimuksen ja kehitystyön, koska se on oikeastaan ainoa asia mikä valtiota kiinnostaa. Koko valtio natisee liitoksissaan kun kleptokratian oliargit kilpailevat vaikutusvallasta. Venäjä ei ole globaalisti uhka NATOlle, se on uhka vain NATOlle Baltiassa.

Vielä muinaisella 1980 luvulla Varsovanliiton ja NATOn jakolinjat olivat keskellä Saksaa. Länsi ja Itä olivat valmistautuneet jatkamaan ideologioidensa levittämistä siitä, mihin olivat vuonna 1945 päässet. Erityisesti Venäjä, silloisen NLn nimellä, oli levittänyt hirmuhallintonsa miljoonien ihmisten harmiksi kauas Venäjän rajojen ulkopuolelle. Nykyään tuo jakolinja kulkee peipsjärven kohdalla Baltiassa. NATO ei enää taistele veitsi kurkulla Fuldan kapeikossa kolmatta Iskuarmeijaa ja 28:tta Kaartin armeijaa vastaan, vaan Baltiassa siellä, ainakin noin vuoteen 2020, ylivoimaisia Venäläisiä joukkoja vastaan.

Luojan kiitos kommunistien diktatuurin romahtamisesta omaan mahdottomuuteensa, koska se vapautti Itä-Euroopan kauan syyttä kärsineet kansat vapauteen. Nyt kaikki Venäjän vallasta tarpeekseen saaneet itä-eurooppalaiset ovat, Suomen alukuunottamatta, liittyneet NATOon. Tuskin Venäjän alustalaisena olemisen mukavista muistoista johtuen.

Suomen olisi siis aika jättää omaan arvoonsa Hautakerojen haudanhaamujen sielua mädättävät mutinat ja katsoa miltä maailma näyttää oikeasti nykyään, siellä kuplan ulkopuolella.  Olisi aika laittaa se NATOjäsenyys vetämään. Ainoa optio on se että hyväksyykö jäsenyyden annetuilla ehdoilla vai ei. Meillä ei olevelvollisuutta, nykytilassa, auttaa viroa. Mutta ei ole kukaan meitäkään auttamassa, kuten TP Niinistö haastattelussa Viron TVssä totesi

Posted in Baltic situation, hybridisota, NATO jäsenyys, NATO keskustelu, Suuri peli | Leave a comment

JAS-39 Gripen E/(F) julkistus

Tänään siis rullaa tehtaalta ulos SAAB Gripenin uusin versio. Kone on kasvanut C/D versiosta muutamalla kymmenellä sentillä, jolloin sisäistä polttoainemäärää on saatu kasvatettua noin 40%. Samoin moottori on kasvanut suuremmaksi, joka on tuonut kantokykyä koneelle lisää, Tällöin myös kiinnityskohtia on voitu lisätä koneen alle.

Edelleen myös koneen elektronisen sodankäynnin systeemi on uudistettu. Mutta kuulemme asiasta lisää iltapäivällä. Lisään linkin kun sellainen on olemassa.

 

Linkki julkistuksen videoon. Kestää noin puolitoista tuntia. Juttu alkaa noin 5min kohdalta.

Posted in HX-ohjelma, Suomi ja Ruotsi | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

REBlog: The need of SEAD

Olen parissa aikaisemmassa postauksessa ainakin yrittänyt korostaa Ilmatorjunnan häiritsemisen ja tuhoamisen tärkeyttä. Tässä aiheesta laajemmin minua tietäväisempi SEAD kirjoittaja. Olkaapa hyvät. Alkuperäinen teksi on War On The Rocksissa

THE NEED FOR SEAD PART I: THE NATURE OF SEAD
MIKE PIETRUCHAMAY 17, 2016
Wild-Weasel
Print Friendly
FacebookTwitterGoogle+LinkedIn

Editor’s Note: The Nature of SEAD is the first part of a 2-part series calling for the restoration of the defense suppression enterprise that carried the Joint Force from Vietnam until Desert Storm. This part covers the need for the restoration of the “electronic combat triad” once covered by specialized, well-trained crews in the F-4G, EF-111A, and the EC-130. Part II will discuss the modern threat environment and the impact of an over-reliance on stealth aircraft on the U.S. Air Force.

Twenty-five years ago, Coalition forces began combat operations to eject Iraq from Kuwait. The method chosen was airpower, which shattered Iraq’s military forces weeks in advance of the ground campaign that punctuated the end of the war. The Iraqi air defense system, called “Kari,” was effectively neutralized within three days, leaving Iraqi commanders with only short-range defenses completely disconnected from the air defense system. The surface-to air missile (SAM)-killing Wild Weasel force, rushed into service in the fall of 1965 to counter the Vietnamese missile threat, had grown into its own a quarter century and five airplane designs later. Unofficial accounts within the Weasel community, based on combat tapes, put the tally of radars killed by the F-4G over 250, with some aviators suspecting that the number was much greater. This was a dominant performance that exceeded the most optimistic projections.

None of that mattered. Following the conflict, the electronic warfare capabilities that made this possible were retired without replacement. The impact of this divestiture should have been apparent over Serbia in 1999, when “after 78 days, we effected little degradation on a modern IADS [integrated air defense] system.” But other events and demands on the force shielded the Air Force from the potential impact of its own neglect. In an environment dominated by irregular warfare challenges, this lack of capability has not made a difference. Afghanistan never had air defense worth mentioning. When Iraqi Freedom kicked off in 2003, Iraq’s air defense had been shattered by an ad hoc campaign of lethal counter-integrated air defense strikes that had been ongoing since late 1998. In the absence of a modern threat, the lack of capability implied by a limited Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) enterprise went unnoticed. In an environment where the United States had uncontested air supremacy, the Department of Defense was allowed to forget why air superiority is necessary, and how it is achieved.

Operational Implications
Air superiority is an absolute prerequisite for joint operations in an environment where the enemy has the will and capability to contest control of the air. It may be possible to conduct effective operations when neither side has air superiority, but it is effectively impossible if the adversary has control of the air. In the wake of Desert Storm, potential allies were reminded of this immutable fact and made major investments in air defenses. Russia and China led the charge, fielding dozens of new systems intended not only to counter airpower, but specifically to counter American airpower. The implications span a number of Air Force missions, including and especially offensive counterair, interdiction, and close air support (CAS) in a contested environment.

The ongoing tribulations of the A-10 have done a great deal to obscure the history of what the A-10 was designed for, the environment it was intended to operate in, and the support assets that would have been available. While the A-10 was designed to be a dedicated CAS aircraft, the implicit assumption was that a Wild Weasel and standoff jammer mix would support A-10 operations, particularly in Europe. F-4G Wild Weasel doctrine at the time was to target SAM acquisition radars, depriving Soviet divisional air defense of cueing and forcing air defense operators into a struggle to acquire targets visually. In Europe, with low cloud ceilings, poor visibility, and rolling terrain, this was a good bet when coupled with low altitude operations. It paid off in Desert Storm, when the electronic combat triad wrecked the radar-dependent portions of the Iraqi integrated air defense strikes. Discussions today regarding a contested environment are focused on building an aircraft that is survivable over the modern battlefield, ignoring the external capabilities that ensured that the A-10 only had to survive against a threat dominated by anti-aircraft artillery and small missiles. The notion of “high-threat CAS” is nonsense. There is no piece of magic aircraft design or technological prowess that will enable an aircraft to loiter over a dispersed target with credible, radar-guided self-defense capabilities.

Similarly, the non-SEAD aspects of offensive counterair operations (SEAD is a subset of offensive counterair) are likewise dependent on robust and effective suppression of the radar defenses. Even stealth aircraft like the F-22 will require robust SEAD support, just as the F-117 and B-2 did during Operation Allied Force. Aluminum aircraft are vulnerable to radar and optical (including infra-red) detection at longer ranges than ever, but aircraft possessed of radar low observability are not immune from a requirement for effective SEAD support. Low observability aircraft are not universally stealthy from all angles; their signature varies in three dimensions based on the observer’s viewpoint. The reality of dealing with an integrated defense on their home ground is that aircrew cannot maneuver their aircraft to minimize signature against all threats all of the time. It is possible to maneuver against a single threat, air or ground — all other threats get a different look angle. If someone isn’t suppressing the threat radars, one of them is going to get a good enough angle on the target to achieve a stable track. Once a radar locks on to a target, the amount of power it can put on target may jump by orders of magnitude, and with more power comes better target detection. Whatever your offensive counterair mission, if you are being constantly engaged, you are not accomplishing it.

The interdiction mission gets the worst of all possible worlds. Almost by definition, an interdiction target is one that is worth destroying, and therefore worth defending. The target set is unlikely to be at the edge of an integrated air defense strike. It is often right in the middle, meaning that penetrating aircraft are surrounded by threats. Gun systems are impossible to suppress but are short ranged. Likewise, infra-red SAMs are impossible to suppress, are also short ranged, don’t work in bad weather, and, like anti-aircraft artillery, are not easily to employ effectively at night. If an air defender wants to cover large swaths of territory with a ground-based system, or to do it at night or in the weather, radar is a necessity. An aircraft on an interdiction sortie not only is unable to manage the fine points of maneuvering to maximize signature reduction, but it is always surrounded by threats waiting in ambush. On the bright side, attacks on interdiction targets are often “one pass, haul ass,” where loitering is not a requirement. Beware being the fourth aircraft dropping short-range weapons — because air defenses concentrate around what you want to hit, and only the first aircraft has anything resembling surprise. By the time the fourth aircraft shows up, every gunner in the target area has already counted to three and drawn the obvious conclusion.

CompassCall
EC-130H Compass Call (U.S. Air Force Photo)
In the face of a peacetime readiness state, stealthy aircraft can and do slip through enemy airspace unobserved. So do aluminum aircraft. The MC-130 is the aircraft used to insert and support special operations forces deep in hostile territory — and may be the most effective airspace penetrator ever — and the C-130 is the antithesis of a stealthy aircraft from a design standpoint. Still, neither the single reconnaissance flights nor the Special Operations Command infiltrators are trying to penetrate a dense, alert air defense system in numbers large enough to have an effect. Against a modern air defense network, a robust, redundant, and capable SEAD capability is not a luxury — it is a necessity.

The Nature of SEAD

The experience in Vietnam demonstrated that the suppression of enemy air defenses is a very dynamic mission that required intense training and dedicated crews. The crew mix, matching a pilot with an electronic warfare officer (EWO) was the first of its kind, and it was retained through the retirement of the F-4G Advanced Wild Weasel. Had the Follow-on Wild Weasel program not been cancelled, it would have also had a pilot/EWO crew. Weasel squadrons were not true multi-role units, although they maintained high levels of proficiency in other counterair roles. This specialization requires a heavy investment in realistic training but pays huge dividends in combat.

It would be a mistake to measure the effectiveness of a SEAD effort by counting the number of radars killed. The purpose of SAM suppression is to make the missiles ineffective while friendly aircraft are vulnerable to engagement. The metric is not the number of radars killed but the number of aircraft not lost. Killing an air defense battery is icing on the cake — it means that it is not available the next day — but the SEAD mission is successfully accomplished by just taking the radar off the air for a short time.

Raven-TakingOff
An EF-111A Raven taking off for an exercise, April 1985 (U.S. Air Force Photo by SRA Sullivan)
The electronic combat triad was a multilayered collection of countermeasures designed to attack an air defense system at several points. The two-seat Wild Weasels, originally F-100F Super Sabres and eventually F-4G Phantoms, were intended to locate emitting radars and suppress or destroy them using anti-radiation missiles or free fall ordnance — a step up from the F-100F’s rockets and guns. The EF-111A Raven mounted the same powerful radar jammers as the Navy’s EA-6B and was designed to prevent acquisition radars from detecting aircraft to pass off to fire control radars. The underappreciated EC-130H Compass Call started life in 1981 as a communications jammer, designed to obliterate voice and data communications for Soviet interceptors and mobile SAMs. It was later upgraded to include powerful radar jammers of its own. All three systems, functioning together, were intended to bring an integrated air defense system to a state where radars could not see, pilots and controllers could not talk, and target assignments could not be made — while holding a lethal threat over the heads of enemy radar operators. Just like suppressive fire using small arms, the goal was to encourage enemy operators to keep their heads down and hamper their ability to perform if they elected to try.

It’s the same with SAMs. Suppression happens in the minds of enemy air defense operators. Suppression is accomplished by reminding operators that out there is a well-armed, sensor equipped fighter aircrew that has as their primary mission putting radar systems out of action. A fully autonomous SAM system could not be effectively suppressed if the computers did not care about force preservation. An operator cares very much about force preservation. In Desert Storm, the air defense operators who lost sight of system preservation requirements died in the first 72 hours. Surviving operators often responded to the presence of jamming by shutting down their radars on the theory that if there was a jammer out there, right behind it was a Weasel. They were often right. The earlier an operator figured this out, the more likely the battery was to survive the war.

F4gs
Two F-4Gs from the 35th Tactical Fighter Wing (Provisional) fly over Saudi Arabia six days before Desert Storm (U.S. Air Force Photo)
This level of intimidation was achieved despite an environment where the SAM might have been thought to have the advantage. After all, the engagement starts at a time of the SAM battery’s choosing, against a target chosen by the operator, under conditions where it is always a surprise to the aircrew. Conditions can equalize very quickly — a SAM system that brings its radar up is not only revealed but highlighted. In Desert Storm, faced with well-trained and very aggressive aircrew, SAM systems were rapidly and effectively targeted in real time, even when Weasels were themselves targeted. During Desert Storm, there were 21 documented engagements by a SAM against an F-4G where the operator did not abandon the engagement in midstream. In 14 of those engagements the SAM battery was killed by the targeted aircraft’s wingman. No F-4Gs were shot down.

Some suppressive effects last well beyond the immediate engagement, as long as a credible, lethal threat is present. Serbian air defenders planned to move after every engagement, successful or not. The launch of an anti-radiation missile, which “rides the radar” beam back to the radar, was the signal for the surface-to-air missile battery to abandon any shots in the air, shut down, pack up, and move before a NATO aircraft showed up. Radar systems that stayed in place too long because they were broken, dug in, or just had unwise operators were hunted down and killed by the F-15E. Serbian air defenders stayed alive by radiating little and moving much — all of which impaired their ability to defend their airspace.

The Mobility Challenge

Radar-Iraqi
Missile seeker video of an Iraqi FAN SONG E Radar mounted on a heavy equipment transport trailer in January 1999. The radar is about two seconds from being obliterated with an AGM-130 fired by an F-15E from the 494th Fighter Squadron. (U.S. Air Force Photo).
One of the outcomes of Desert Storm was that air defenses shifted from static positions to a mobility doctrine. Starting in 1967 with the notoriously incapable SA-4 Krug, the Soviets fielded mobile SAMs for protection of maneuver units. The SA-6 Kub, fielded the same year, was a much more capable system, and proved the bane of Israeli Defense Force aircraft over the Sinai in 1973. Follow-on systems were mobile because they intended to defend advancing ground forces, not mobile because they needed to avoid attack. That changed after 1991, where mobility was embraced as a means for avoiding the consequences of having emerged from hiding. Many formerly static systems were re-hosted on more mobile platforms. Today, only the massive SA-5 Gammon missiles remain immobile, and for good reason. Among countries with air defense networks, North Korea stands alone in not embracing a mobility doctrine, instead electing to fortify and harden their systems, with the result that they cannot support offensive ground movements with radar SAMs.

Desert Storm spelled the end of the static radar system; today everything from the low-band VHF radars to long-range SAM batteries is mobile. But mobility comes with a price. With the exception of the very short-range systems like the SA-15 Tor or the Tunguska gun/missile systems, moving radars cannot acquire on the move, much less shoot on the move. A moving SAM system, especially the long-range systems, is neutered while it is moving and cannot perform its air defense function. A sufficiently aggressive SEAD element may force an adversary into a defensive posture where the systems must move after each engagement to avoid retaliation. This can only be accomplished if the adversary believes retaliation against a revealed position to be inevitable and effective.

System mobility is an attribute, not a constraint. There are indications that some SAM operators are also prepared to stand and fight from garrison positions. Figure 5 illustrates a Chinese long-range SAM garrison southeast of Beijing. There are revetted concrete pods for missile transporter-erector-launchers, two elevated drive-up mounds for radars, and a concrete pad for a mast-mounted acquisition radar. This battery design, emplaced at the peacetime location for the battery, indicates the dual nature of a strategic SAM battery in China. The garrison is a full-up fighting position, with elevated radar mounds, permanent cable runs, and facilities for system repair and battery reload. It is entirely possible that the battery commander would be ordered to stand and fight, relying for survival on the battery’s formidable self-protection capabilities along with other nearby air defense systems. At the same time, the garrison is constructed in such a way to maximize the ability to drive off the facility to a dispersal location. Of the radar and support vehicles visible, only the radar mounted on the mast would remain 10 minutes after an order to move was received, and the mast would be underway within 90.

Restoring Penetration Capability

Chinese-Air-Defense
Chinese Air Defense garrison (Google Earth)
The Air Force is fooling itself if it expects to achieve the effects we achieved in Desert Storm without paying for the capabilities and training that made it possible. The challenge of penetrating well-defended airspace is not subject to simple technological solutions. There is no “magic bullet” that will suddenly obsolete modern systems that have been under refinement since even before 1991. It took the Air Force decades of neglecting electronic warfare, delaying aircraft upgrades, and slashing flying hours to get to where we are today, and it will take some time and a great deal of resources to climb out of that hole. Regardless of the shape of the future force, be it stealth-heavy or stealth-light, SEAD capability will be an indispensable ingredient for a credible airpower-centric deterrent. Not only do we need to have a modern electronic combat triad, but we need to be seen to have one by allies and potential adversaries alike. In an environment dominated by advanced SAMs and integrated networks, we need a custom-tailored solution like the one we used to have, and can have again.

Posted in ilmavoimat, SEAD, Sodanajan toiminta, Sotapelit, teknologia | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Pikkuinen SEAD harjoitus Ruotsi-Suomi vastaan S-300/400 IT-keskus Norjassa

Tuloreitit

Ensiksi mainoksena: Kartan kaappasin surutta sivulta viestihopeat. Siellä oli kokoelma isoresoluutioisia karttoja, joihin oli vielä yksittäisiä tuntureitakin merkitty, joten pääsin edes vähän miettimään lähestymisreittiä kohteeseen. Tietenkin tarvitsisi edelleen jotakin tietoja laakson pohjan korkeudesta, että voisi sanoa jotain miltä etäisyydeltä koneet pomppaavat tutkaan. Mutta koulutustahan minulla ei tähän ole, eli ihan valistuneella arvauksella mennään.

Tilanne

Homman nimenä olisi hyökkäys joko F/A-18E/F/G ja JAS-39E/F/G koneilla Norjaan  Kölivuorten yli. Suomi-Ruotsin kuningaskunnalla apuna edelleen myös maavoimien tykistöaseistusta. Vastassa olisi A2 Keltainen S-400 IT-divisioona. Tilpehööreineen, siis 6 laukaisinta, johtokeskuksen sekä valvontatutkan sisältämä IT pataljoona, jota on ryhmitetty suojaamaan Pantsir patteri.

Käytännössä valvontatutka olisi sijoitettuna korkeimmalle kohdalle, johon sen voi sijoittaa. Välittömässä läheisyydessään yksi s-400 laukaisin ja johtokeskus kauempana laaksossa muita laukaisimia lähistöllään. Yksi Panstir suojaisi valvonta ja tulenjohtotutkaa sen välittömässä läheisyydessä, ja muut olisi sijoitettu niin, että niilä voidaan suojata johtokeskusta, sekä laukaisimia myös tykeillä.

Pantsir S1 on alue- ja kohdesuojaksi tarkoitettu järjestelmä, ja sen on suunniteltu seuraavan nimenonaan S-400 systeemiä suojaamaan sitä lähelle pääseviltä uhilta. Patsirin reaktioaika on 5 sekunnin luokkaa, jolloin noin äänennopeutta etenevä kohde ehtii kulkea noin 1500m matkan. Pantsirin ohjuksen vaakaulottuvuus on 20 km luokkaa ja pystyulottuvuus noin 15km. Järjestemän 30mm it kanuunalla vastaavat arvot ovat vaakaa 4km, pystyä 3km ja minimietäisyys 200m. Ohjuksella väitetään olevan yksittäin noin 70% osumatodennäköisyys, joten normaalista tuplatöötistä selviää ilman muita muuttujia noin 9% ammutuista. (49%/42%/9% ovat todennäköisyydet 2 osumaa, 1 osuma, kaksi hutia)

Lähestyminen

Koneiden pitäisi nousta koordinoidusti, niin että lentoajat huomoiden ne tulevat kohdealueelle saman kahden minuutin sisään. Tätä etenemistä voidaan koordinoida Ruotsalaisella mini AWACS Saab 340 AEW&C koneella. Muuten kaikkien koneiden pitää lentää matalalla, suurella lastilla, nopeasti ja radiohiljaisuudessa.

 

Ylhäällä näkyvissä täytyy olla myös ns Combat Air Patrol, joka pitää seuraa ja häiritsee A2 Keltaisen hävittäjäsuojaa, ja suojaa Saab 340 AEW&C konetta.

Sinisten pitäisi siis lähestyä Kölivuorten laaksoja pitkin niin, että vasta aivan viime hetkillä tullaan kuvaan. Vaikka päätutkat olisivatkin korkealla, voit kuvitella tilanteen samankaltaiseksi, kuin jos yrittäisit valaista taskulampulla korkean talon katolta vähän kauempana olevan matalamman talon taakse: katvetta jää varmasti alas. A2 keltainen varmaan sijoittaa lähi torjunta patterin tutkansa ja muut maalinosoitukseen kykenevät laitteensa suojaamaan tärkeimpiä valvonta tutkia. Koska jälleen vuorten laaksot, eivät yksittäiset laukaisimet voi toimia tehokkaasti laaksosta toiseen, joten ne on pakko ryhmittää melko pienelle alueelle. Sinisten SEAD koneet tulevat tässä kohtaa tärkeiksi, niiden täytyy harhauttaa tutkia ainakin sen aikaa, että lavetteihin saadaan asevaikutusta. Perinteisesti käytetty yleensä rypälepommeja tai muuten ohjuksia.

Tykistöstä tai itse asiassa MLRS järjestelmä tulee hyödyksi, kun tulee ilmoitus että hyökkäyskoneet alkavat olla etäisyydellä, että raketinheitinten lentoajan puitteissa, rakettien lentoaika, ja vaikkapa,+30 sekuntia. Rakentinheitin patteri toimisi käsivarren erämaasta. Ideana se että alueelle alkaa sataa kärkiä niin, että ohjuksia joudutaan käyttämään myös tykistöaseiden torjuntaan. Jo yksittäiset raketit, unaarit isot kärjet seassaan kuorma-ammuksia, ovat IT-järjestelmän kaltaiselle puolikovalle maalille suuri vaara, pakottaa uhka torjumaan raketit, tai kestämään kalustotappioita vastaanottavassa päässä.

Ideaalitilanteessa, kun Pantsir-patteri aloittaa rakettien torjunnan pommppaavat hyökkäävät lentokoneet esiin maaston suojasta, ja ampuvat ensimäiset HARM ohjukset (näitä ei oikeasti Suomessa ainakan ole, mutta viis siitä, ei JAS-39E kään ole olemassa ennekuin tämänkuun 18. päivä.) Growlerit aloittavat sekä datalinkkien että tutkien häirinnän vaikeuttaakseen patterin johtamista.

Tässä vaiheessa pitäisi puhkaista tie S-400 tutkien ja patteriden luo. Tappioita tulisi enemmän tai vähemmän riippuen siitä kuinka pahasti Pantsir patteri  on yllätetty, ja montako HARM ohjusta onnistuttiin torjumaan, Sekä kuinka hyvin patterin johto on voinut ohjata taistelua. Sinisille täydellisessä mailmassa toinen isku-osasto pääsee hyökkäämään puskista, ja ampumaan HARMit ikäänkuin 3/4 tyhjäksi ampuneen patterin selkään, jolloin taappiot ovat A2 Keltaiselle pahat. Tämän jälkeen taas kylvetään rypälepommia kaiken havaitun päälle, ja käännytään valvontatutkaa ja itse S-400 laukaisimia kohti. Ammutaan uusi satsi HARM ohjuksia, ja täydennetään tuhoja  rautapomeilla.

Sitten ylös ja pois paikalta, ettei A2 Keltaisen hävittäjät pääse liikaa häiritsemään iskuosastoa. M270 MLRS järjestelmä on tällävälin ladattu, ja täydentää tuhon ampumalla vielä iskun vähempiarvoisiin löydettyihin maaleihin.

Muuta

Mitäs luulette: Onko tämä aika ilmiselvä tapa tehdä tällainen hyökkäys? Olisiko A2 Kelt. sijoittanut aistivalvontapartioita soliin ylös ja vähän alemmas ITo ryhmiä olkapää ohjusten kanssa. He saisivat varoituksen näiltä vaikka lankapuhelinta pitkin varoituksen lähestyvistä koneista, ja varmaan ainakin häirittyä ja kukaties tuhottuakin muutaman hyökkääjän. Tämäkin olisi SWE-FINillä tiedossa, joten varmaan sissiryhmät olisivat kulkeneet monia solia ylös ja alas tälläisiä ilmavalvontapaikkoja etsien ja juuri enne n iskua tuhoten.

Tämmösen vaan tässä kaavailin.

 

Posted in hypoteesitilanne, Jotain aivan muuta | Leave a comment

Raketinheittimien tarkkuudesta

Oheistetussa videoissa on lennokkikuvaa, jossa näkyy koko rakettien lento tuliasemista maaliin. Videossa paikka ja aika on sutattu, joten vaikea ottaa kantaa missä ammunta tapahtuu, mutta veikkaan maastosta päätellen Lähi-Itää.

Toinen huomioitava seikka on kuinka suuren ovaalin, eli osuma alueen, raketit tekevät. Senkään kokoon on sinänsä vaikea ottaa muuta kantaa kuin että “iso on”. pituutta ampumasuunnassa ,ainakin, 200-300m. (ei mittakaavaa, niin vaikea sanoa, eäilen että enemmänkin) sivusuunnassa nippu on tietenkin paljon kapeampi, noin 100-200m, luokkaa.(Taas tietenkin samat tekijät huomioon ottaen).  Luonnollisesti se, että raketit tulevat alamäkeen tai myötärinteeseen, joka pidentää kuviota.

Edelleen nämä ovat “tyhmiä” raketteja, jotka eivät siis hakeudu GPS tai muultakaan pohjalta maaliin, vaan lentävät ihan kauniin paraabelilla ballistisella radalla.

Video katsottavasta TÄSTÄ LINKISTÄ. (En pysty liittämään videota, koska olen paska ihminen, ja en maksa tästä saitista mitään.)

ps. Nimimerkki Eräs isä oli katsellut kommenttipinoa vähän tarkemmin, ja huomasi, että tapahtumat olivat Latakiassa Syyrian rannikolla. Eli kyse on ilmeisesti venäläisestä/assadilaisesta videosta.

Posted in Jotain aivan muuta, Sodanajan toiminta | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Finland as a part of NATO, some unfashionable thoughts

One started wondering what it would mean in a scenario similar to RAND think-tank’s war in Baltic scenario. One thing that springs into mind is that NATO would have a lot more space to cover. Of course Finland has not run her defenses as down as say Holland or Germany have, but still amount of brigades has been cut from 22 to about 8. Most of the cut brigades were “older” types, but now there is significvant pressure to form them again. Personnel is there, but you have to re-equip them. This is the beef that army has. So considering NATOs dilemma, there is a slim chance that in current depleted form FDF could give brigades to defend Baltic states. In fact Finland would herself need more equipped brigades to mount viable defense. Not to go into current Finnish Naval and Airforce procurement programs which are both necessary and, at least considering the Navy’s program, underfunded.

Here NATO could help herself: equipment made available for FDF to equip more brigades in reasonable price. FDF had to demolish a lot of equipment in austerity measures since 2005, but I guess much could be replenished from stokpiles from former WP countries (in short term) and by normal procurement in long run. This is wiable because reservist are beiin always phased out from older generations as new ones step in. Thus familiarity with equipment goes threought the entire army in about 15 years.(And as the new conscrition, or armed service, law goes through faster as amount of refresment trainig is being hiked up.)

So to put it shortly: before FDF can contribute much outside Finland proper, there has to be sizeable re-armament program, in which NATO can assist by making pricing attractive. Unfortunately one can scarcely find such altruism in modern world, where companies and countries are out to make money, and thus pricing is not made reasonable, it is made best for seller. Which might be OK with womens’ accessories, but common defense should be more than that.

If this Army re-armament is not done, Finland is not much help for NATO. More of a liability than of producer of hard security.

Posted in NATO jäsenyys, TurPo, Uncategorized | 2 Comments

HX-Program, USA offers F-35 and F/A-18E/F

Now it is offical. USA will not offer F-15 or F-16 to HX program.

Linkt HERE, in FIN

Posted in HX-ohjelma | Leave a comment

Russia establishing broader sphere of influence.

Russia’s Foreighn Secretary Mr Sergei LAVROV is broadening Russia’s sphere of influence in Dagens Nyheter in english. Mr Lavrov warns Sweden off from joinig NATO. There would be military response. The response would be decided by the ministry of defense and Armed forces. One wonders will this be what they have already done: Attack runs on Stockholm and Gotland, but this time with live weapons? Trade embargo? Little green men in, say, Gotska Sandön?

Elsewhere Finlands former President Mrs Tarja Halonen says Mr Putin is demonized in western (particularly in US) press. Well to be exact she said we have to ask IF mr putin is demonized in US press. She said this in a speech in former communist’ dominated “Aleksanteri instituutti” of University of Helsinki.  I feel Mr putin, and by extension his government takes cares of this demonizing all by their lonesome.

Posted in NATO jäsenyys, NATO keskustelu, Suomi ja Ruotsi, Suuri peli, TurPo, voimapolitiikka | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

FDF in turmoil, there will be blood on the dancefloor

A finnish weekly Seura poblished an article about fight about money between Airforce, navy and Army. (Link to article here, in finnishlihakset).  I’ll provide a quick recap of the article for finnish impaired. AF and Navy have bled money from the aArmy, which is the only arm that can fight enemy when invasion occurs. Air forces HX program cost abot 10 G€ and Navy will get abut 1,2 G€ for new frigates. This is all away from Army. Situation was good in 1990’ies when Finland armed the army with DDR’s surplus equipment. Had all the equipment put on a train, the train would have been 48 kilometres long.

the Army generals have a point the Army is the only “big stick “that exist in Finland and unfortunately it has been allowed to go to dogs. Although the naval officers may look very pretty in dress whites atop big ships, they, nor the ships, are not capable of defending the eastern border against Russia’s invasion. Same goes with the Air Force.  

Of course one has to realize that the air force is main component of the FDF’s force projection, and it is needed to defend the  Army against hostile Air Forces. And the Air Force needs the numbers in order to be able to fulfill the mission it is needed for.  

The same goes for the Navy because everybody knows that 4 ships that are meant to replace the 7 older hulls will not be enough not by a long shot.  These ships would be needed for Convoy duty to take Finish shipping to southern Baltic Sea and to Danish straits and back.  At the same time those ships would be needed to protect the Åland islands and Southern Coastline against landings and infiltration of Special Forces. So I’d think something in order of eight frigates would be in need here.

So what really is happening here is that everybody has noticed that the emperor has no clothes or in other words the notice the Army, the big stick, that’s going to ruin and nobody wants to admit this and political class cannot in this economic situation put money where it is needed.  

So maybe he wants to take a long hard look over establishing same kind of the Home Guard to get men and rifles for the Army, Yep they have destroyed more than 100 000 of them too.  Every free country in the world, well apart from Finland and Sovie.. Russia has. Home guard functions very well in Estonia and in Sweden and Norway and in many other countries throughout Europe so there is no reason whatsoever that it would not function in Finland.  So in hopes that Finland will get the Civil guard it needs and even though it is sexy to buy big ships and nice airplanes that Army would also get its due and equipment and the brigades it needs. Finland just cannot be cannot be defended by 3 brigades, the area and time just will not allow it, and NATO will not want to come she cannot pull its own weight in defense.

So we should now pay up the neglect dished out by Mr Katainen and Mrs Urpilainen, and rise the defence spending for next 110-15 years or so to 2,5-3% of GNP, and pay the piper and put army into shape again. Equipment and brigade vice both.

Over and out.

Posted in Armeija 2020, ilmavoimat, Jotain aivan muuta, merivoimat, NATO jäsenyys, Puolustusvoimat, puolustusvoimauudistus, Sodanajan joukot, Sodanajan toiminta, TurPo | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment