HX scenario number 3: Winter in the North

Disclaimer. I do not have any knowledge of what the scenarios used as a base for HX program fighter evaluation are, but I have tried to make an educated guess what these might be.

Also the suftware used for simulation is the most accurate simulation software in civilian market. Here the word in operation is civilian market, so I do not think I am 100% accurate in this simulation. I think the accuracy of simulation will be in the neighborhood of D/C in F-A scale or 2/3 in 1-5 scale. So more then 50% accurate, but not much more than 70% accurate.

The basics of the scenario

Picture from the beginning of the scenario. Russian AFBs in orange, FAF in blue.

Scenario this time is Defensive Counter Air action in Lappland and Northern Finland. It is based on assumption what Russia would need to accomplish in order to brake out to Atlantic with Red Banner Northern Fleet surface forces to distrupt NATO reinforcements from arriving from USA and Canada. THis would need to be accomplished as a part of annexing of the Baltic States and distrupting NATO as a alliance.

In Finnish Defense Forces neck of woods this would mean at the very least guarding of neutrality in the Lapland and Southern Finland and we are now concentrating in Lappland in in extreme weather and in darkness. Russia would need to grab Norwegian Finnmark coast most of the way to Lofoten as well, in order to keep surface units secure from anti ship missiles and to most extent of NATO submarines. This would involve land attack to NATO Northern flank and shortest way to Lofotes island runs through Finnish and Swedish Lappland. So the WILL be sizeable shooting war there.

As a preliminary for that attack there needs to be air action to limit effectiveness of Finnsih and Swedish Air Forces in the theatre.

Russian AF bases have (Accroding to Pentti Perttula’s “Nykyaikainen ilmasodankäynti” page 119 ) 14 SU-33 multi role fighters in Severomorsk 3 AFB. 17 SU-24MR strike planes and 14 MiG-25RB recon planes in Montsegorsk and 52 SU-27 at Petrozavodsk/Besovets AFB. The OCA and strike elements are composed of these forces. There may have been changes, but it will be close enough for this scenario.

So here we are….

VVS is heading in from all the bases that they have around Kola and Karelia. They have support of Il-50U MAINSTAY AWACS and Il-22PP EW platform. Radar and jamming are active on the beginning of scenario.

Finnis side has three radars active: long range Ahvenvaara out in the north, Kajaani in the south (Says JAMMED) next to it on picture and Middle distance one Sodankylä (also JAMMED). I think that MIGHT have been going for some time, so that to get Finnish radar operators used to having their radars jammed, and not take it too seriously. Also the game is to get time for the strike package and the SEAD package to get to shoot without alarming the defense.

What sthe FAF side sees in beginning of the scenario.There is some traffic, but as all is in Russian side, there is not too much cause for alarm.

Finnish AD network picks up the Packages at about 11 minustes after the scenario has begun at about KEVA (Thompson Groundmaster). and to the south with KAVA (TRS 2230 radar) at 192,3 nm

After this we proceed to performance of different HX candidates. Permission to fire is given once something is detected on Finnish side of the border. Finnish side has 14 fighters available that are disperced in all over the Lapland and Northern Finland.

Next up Eurofighter Typhoon

Then Lockheed F-35 A Lightning

In the middle Dassault Rafale

Next to last Boeing F/A-18 E/F/G

Last but not least SAAB JAS-39 E Gripen and Global EYE

About epamuodikkaitaajatuksia

Viisikymppinen jannu, joka on huolissaan siitä miten maanpuolustus ja turvallisuus makaa Lapissa, Suomessa ja Euroopassa. Harrastuksina Amerikkalainen jalkapallo ja SRA ammunta, Defendo ja Krav Maga. A guy about 45, who has a "thang" for military current issues, defense and shooting. Not to forget American football. Also Krav maga and Saario Defendo is done for the kicks.
This entry was posted in Buildup to war, HX-ohjelma, hypoteesitilanne, ilmavoimat, in English, simulaatio, Sotapelit, Tilanne päällä, War in Baltic Region and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to HX scenario number 3: Winter in the North

  1. Pertti Latvala says:

    Melekeen taisin ymmärtää?!

  2. Pingback: Typhoons in Arctic evening | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

  3. Pingback: F-35 A hard pressed, but mostly getting it done | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

  4. Pingback: Rafale’s very good showing | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

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