First a couple of disclaimers and or notifications on subject: I do not have any knowledge what the HX scenarios used in evaluation might be. Thus this scenario is just my personal view what HX scenario OCA/Deep Penetration scenario might be. This scenario is called Walz in Carelia
Second I have used commercial simulation program Command Modern Warfare to run these scenarios, so there is problems with accuracy of the software. I suspect it gets things about 50-65% right. So you would get around 2-3 out of six level of performance in school. So OK, but not good.
Third: I do not have NATO weaponeering manual, so there might be cases of wrong kind of ordnance used to targets, so without further ado to business at hand:
Fourth: This post is one I loathe to make: it is not really fair to fighters named in the header. This is because Command Modern Operations database does not carry all the equipment necessary to run this scenario. Dassault Rafale does not have stand in jammers nor ALARM/HARM family of missiles, they do defiantly have. Thus I have stooped of using the Eurofighter Typhoons with SPEAR EWs to provide stand in jamming for the named fighters. This of course degrades the reliability of the simulation further.
Another note is that while Rafale with Spectra seem to be pretty immune to S-400 system, Gripen seemed to be quite vulnerable to it. which might be bias against AREXIS self protection system, or it might just be that CMANO has not yet gotten around of updating the database from 2019 new generation Gripen.
Also: We know that FAF is getting for example BLU-109 2000lb (or 1000kg) bombs that are meant for bunker and hard target and structures busting as per DSCA papers. So putting JAS-39 E Gripens away with 500 lb mk 82 bombs is not really fair. The difference in destructive capability is considerable. run of the mill mk 82 500lb bomb has 87kg os explosive matter where BLU-109 has 240kgs (BLU-117 has 202kg, so it might offer the best combo. It is also included in DCSA permit)
So enough of the gripes in into the business:
Rafale just does deliver!
As mentioned above, Rafale does not have in Command Modern Warfare all the tools of the trade needed to punish top notch integrated Air defense area denial system. In the video included Dassault Rafale took more casualties than typical, but also give the good point of having twin engined fighter: You can get home with just one engine. Also there was Typhoons taking care of the SEAD side of things mostly, which is a bit of a letdown in my books.
We know that Rafale is capable of carrying, ALARM/HARM missiles, but Comman Modern Warfare does not have these in database for Rafale. For this reason HAMMER glide bombs are used instead. While not completely inaccurate way of using these weapons, they are not dedicated radar killing kinetick weapons. and as you can see, without the help on Stand in jammers, quite easily shot down by the modern AA systems.
SPEAR EW is distinctly a British solution for this problem, alhough in MBDA brochure, and LADM is SAAB’s in house product for the need. We know that MBDA has the SMARTGLIDER that has this kind of EW solution and in MBDA pictures, lo and behold, it is launched from Dassault Rafale fighter.
For above reasons I do not feel we really do Dassault Rafale much justice in this post, so this is more of an entertainment. Dassault Rafale is the strike/penetration optimized product of a program that was supposed to bring forth common fighter platform for most European air forces. and Rafale is indeed formidable in strike applications: it has massive load of 9,5 tons and 5 wet/heavy hardpoints (out of total of 14). This means that delivery of punishment is really not a problem for this beauty.
AS evident in scenario runs, Rafales make pigs breakfast of the SU-27/33 fighters send their way, so that kind of capability is not in question. Even in Russia, where they in their latest runs of war fighting drills (Zapad 2021) deemed “Arcticland” to have technically superior Air Forces to theirs.
This is one run of the Kannas deep strike scenario. you can really see the problems inherited in worlds most demanding air war arena.
So again, Dassault Rafale delivers.