The HX scenarios, a guess what they might be

First a disclaimer: Nobody has discussed the actual HX scenarios with me. These are my somewhat educated guesses what they might be, and what the strenghts of each HX contender in given scenario might be. Further as a basis of the scenario I have selected the RAND scenario of mounting tension with NATO and Russia over Baltic states and the operations that would stem from this.

If you are interested there is a quite extensive piece of russian power in Finnish close areas in YLE. The HX candidates are set into this scenario in no particular order, only as whim takes me and data of HX candidates becomes available. As fitting for so called multi/omni/swing role fighters are fighters are equipped mostly the same, even though this might not make perfectly sense. My blog: my rules.

Scenario 1. The Defense of Åland Islands.

Background: The new cold war has escalated in Northern Europe, and there begin to be ral concerns of war. Finland and Sweden are still neutral, but stille leaning more toward west in their political stance. Finns have completed the HX program, and have about 48 HX planes and weaponry already available in country.

As Russia seeks to grasp the Baltic states and force NATO’s Article 5 as null, she needs to isolate Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from rest of the NATO as tightly as possible. This will revolve around the success of taking Gotland from Sweden and Åland islands from Finland. I will largely leave the Gotland direction out of this even though it will be maybe more of a value to Russia than Åland islands, but as we are discussing the part HX has to play in the defense, it is of lesser importance for us.

As NATO will start concentrating air power to southern Sweden and Stockholm area, it will be imperative to harass the airpower on its way to baltics and back to limit the stores they can carry and force them to maneuver to cut down the time they cans spend in defense of B3 states. Finland as a sovereign State must defend the Åland and its airspace to prevent the battles to fought in Finnish soil. This has to be more than token resistance in order not to antagonize NATO powers. Token resistance would mean that combat would take place in Finnish aerospace and lead to strikes against Finnish airfields by one party or the another.

Scenario: Twice Red Banner Baltic Fleet is responsible of taking over the Gotland and Åland Islands. the 336th Guards amphibious brigade loaded into vessels of 71st Red Star Landing ship brigades’ vessels. Baltic fleet is supported in this by the 76th Air Assault Division. The 76th is responsible of taking over the Gotland with two regiments and Air two air defence battalions. These will be reinforced by S-400 division in Gotland by sea.

At on about the same time Åland will be beached by 336th Guards Naval Infantry brigade, since Finnish response will be more limited and slower due lack of submarines and relative distance from principal AF bases from the Archipelago sea. Combined with Ålanders reluctance of having FDF forces present in islands during peacetime. Not to mention in times when there are definite threat of invasion. Russia will support these landings with AF action both in baltic and along Finnish-Russian border to keep FAFs ability to come into play in Ålands to a minimum. Initial operation will start by elements 76th Air Assault div being dropped to Marienhamn and vicinity, to gain foothold of islands principal harbour and airfield.

At the beginning of scenario Russian forces are airborne and violate Finnish Aerospace at 11.20 in morning. Also the 3 hovercraft are coming in fast carrying light armor and naval infantry Russian air element is mix of transports (4-6) and protecting fighters (12-16 SU-35s). More fighters, at least two pairs, are airborne behind Finnish eastern border.

FAF has three flights airborne one in the north, one in east and one moving toward the Archipelago sea from base in Tampere.

Let the scenario unfold:

What I have guestimated to be the answer to scenario:

SAAB JAS-39 E Gripen

Dassault Rafale

Eurofighter Typhoon

Boeing F/A-18E/F/G Rhino

Lockheed F-35 Lightning II



About epamuodikkaitaajatuksia

Viisikymppinen jannu, joka on huolissaan siitä miten maanpuolustus ja turvallisuus makaa Lapissa, Suomessa ja Euroopassa. Harrastuksina Amerikkalainen jalkapallo ja SRA ammunta, Defendo ja Krav Maga. A guy about 45, who has a "thang" for military current issues, defense and shooting. Not to forget American football. Also Krav maga and Saario Defendo is done for the kicks.
This entry was posted in HX-ohjelma, hypoteesitilanne, ilmavoimat, in English, Skenaariot, Sotapelit, War in Baltic Region and tagged , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to The HX scenarios, a guess what they might be

  1. Pingback: Scenario 1: The Lightning strikes | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

  2. Pingback: Light fighter answer: The Gripens swoop in. | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

  3. Pingback: Rafales to Rescue | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

  4. Pingback: HX Scenario 1. Rhinos on rampage. | Epämuodikkaita ajatuksia

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