I have been a bit busy last two weeks, so unfortunately I have not had the time to delve into murky depths of fighting in Baltic states and what might be options for Sweden and Finland to act under these circumstances.
But first things first. Here is link to a English translation of scenariopaper I was referring to. Many thanks to mr Samooja for translation. This is scenario 3. Narva Estonia.
AS this writing begins Estonia is in or at brink of war, and Russia has threatened Sweden with pre-emptive strikes if NATO troops en route to Estonia do not leave the country. Finland has to jump off the fence to one side or another. Sweden tries to clarify her position, and Finland seems to try to keep channels open to Russia.
As Russia has threatened Finland with reprisals in event of collaboration wit Estonia or other NATO countries. UtVa(foreighnpolicy&security ministers) decide to start building up military capabilities. by calling up local troops and six brigades, to disperse Air force and Navy and make a statement that nothing “threatens Finland”.
At the same time Finnish reservists start talking of helping Estonia and start to collect units of volunteers to go and fight in Estonia. This of course starts hissyfits in Russia loving left, and endless debate in Parliament. But as Russia has allowed their volunteers to go into Estonia with their weapons and equipment, no sensible person sees any harm in going to Estonia to help them in their need. Government tries to discourage this, as they fear that this would give Russia a “causus belli”. Normal Finns appalled with governments indecision and pussyfooting generally ignore Governments pleas for restraint.
As Sweden will not back down, Russia starts preemptive strikes against military command structure and bases. These strikes are largely symbolic, as Sweden has long since dispersed her assets, and on broad terms Russia only manages to give STV nice action footage of missiles raining down in Stockholm, Karlskrona, Sätenäs and Brändby. Sweden has been drawn into war. Swedes retaliate by downing a Russian intelligence plane and by sinking a submarine east of Gotland. Swedish government is pleased that crisis came so soon after they had terminated the conscript training, that they still had a large reserve to draw upon, and resources to arm and equip the lot. Hemvernet has their training recourses at the breaking point when they try to make up for the fallacies of pacifism in too short time. For example infantry weapons are very hard to procure, as every government tries to fill their needs as quickly possible.
After long and heated debate NATO decides finally that Estonia is entitled to aid under article 5. and Britain, USA and Holland start to move assets closer into Norway, Bornholm and Poland. Russia starts to make noises about “NATO aggression” and starts to move Baltic fleet and Northern fleet into sea. More “volunteers” start to appear into western Russia en route to Estonia. Russians in latvia ask Duma for protection against NATO military, and “Russian self protection force” springs out in eastern parts of Lihuania and Latvia. In Poland Anti NATO terrorist start to act against government and military targets.
As situation has escalated, USA starts to haul Marines into Estonia in preparation for support in retaking Narva area. Swedish and NATO forces have some contacts with Baltic fleet as Russians try to thwart Swedes in garrisoning the Gotland and NATO in bringing in support from the west. Both NATO and Russians (and Swedes) start to take casualties. But as action is largely submarine against shipping and submarines action, Russians deny any involvement and accuse NATO of “trying to make war with peaceful Russia.”
Finland starts to see fallacies of her foreign policy in Halonen era and withdraws from Ottawa treaty, and plans to resume AP mine manufacturing. This cannot be done overnight however, and Finland starts calling in rest of the brigades and start ordering new hardware from Patria. Finland would sorely need all kinds of missiles, but no-one is selling, so she has to hope that her 600 AA missiles will be enough to see her through this situation. General public starts to show discontent and there is talk about re-elections both in the right and left side of the political spectrum. “Pro-Estonia movement” calls for government aid for Estonia, and “Russian troll army” wants to Finland to at least neutral or helping Russia in good “Friendship-Co-operation-Assistance” agreement spirit. Government and president decide not to go into elections and start toughening up the Neutrality. AF and Navy are told to fire upon all intruders before prior warning and this is announced to Russia and NATO.
Russia, while expecting Finns to make up their minds, has send “vacationers” to Finland. Special forces troops take residence in cottages and resorts purchased in Finland during the last ten years. As decision is made public, Russian forces gear up in preparation for assaults on Air Force bases and supply depots around Finland.
Swedes and her NATO allies start large scale air operations against Kaliningrad and Russian Air Force. Most of fighting takes place over Baltic, as NATO is unable to maintain Air bases within Baltic states because of narrowness of area. Finnish Air Force maintains CAP in southern Finland and Åland, and manages to keep fighting from pushing into Finnish aerospace. Russians decide to test Finns resolve, and decide to fly over to Finland to get pincer on NATO fighters escorting troops to Estonia.
Russians are greatly surprised as Finns attack fighters after they have entered Finnish aerospace. First encounter favors Finns, who had bee flying CAP and Russians tried to fly in low, in order to avoid Swedish and NATO radar coverage. Finns are able to handily repel Russians back east and manage to down three MiG-29Ms. Russians decide to show Finns the error of their ways. SF in place in Finland and and Artillery brigade of western military district starts to fir SS-26 Iskenders with conventional warheads into Finnish Air Force bases. As Finns have already dispersed operations success is limited, but drives home the point, that war waging nations do not look kindly upon those, who are looking from the bleachers. Russian air force starts to encroach Finnish aerospace as it suits their needs. Finns try to contest this. Both lose aeroplanes, and as Finland cannot repair losses, is losing the war of attrition by default. Some patrol action and anti terrorist activities take part in Finland as Finns start to mop up SF forces in country as they try to ex-filtrate back east.
Swedish navy has numerous contacts with Baltic fleet but as Baltic fleet is enjoying a very “target rich” environment, fleet is mostly neutralized in Kaliningrad waters. Both sides achieve hits on enemy vessels, but only few hulls are lost. Swedes and Finns have problems with Kilo submarines mining approaches to harbors. Finns have added problems with special forces doing all kinds of mischief in archipelago near Naantali oil terminal.
Fighting in eastern Estonia escalates, and SF and small unit actions start to take place all over the Baltic states. Military commanders are assassinated, and infrastructure is destroyed in order to hamper NATO responses to Russian troops movements and actions. NATO troops make short work of separatists and volunteers in eastern Estonia, and advance toward Pihkova and Sumsk, where they meet “Russian troops”. Russia howls about unlawful attack and sacredness of borders, but fails to win any support, apart from Southern Africa. As no help or international show of support is not forthcoming and and Russia seems that she has underestimated cohesion of NATO allies.
Pressure shifts from Baltic sea and Sweden to Baltic states and further eastward, as Sweden and NATO start to consolidate situation in Estonia. At the same time air battles shift to Finnish aerospace as Finland cannot maintain guarded neutrality. Russians bomb Finnish harbors and NATO strikes against airfields and infrastructure in order to deny them to enemy. Finns see that neutrality without force to back it up is just an invitation for “free for all” in Finland.
Russia ask for ceasefire and threaten to use nuclear weapons, if push towards Pihkova is continued. Also Russia spins a story of a “western military district commander’s private venture into Estonia”. Nobody believes, but Kreml decides this is enough to save face and situation returns to pretty much what it was before the Baltic Crisis.
Sweden joins NATO and Finland starts to rebuild and both NATO and Russia start to gather clout in Finland to push things their way.