There will be General Elections in Finland in Spring and polling in beginning of December shows a strong possibility of an Socialist Prime minister. This one done by YLE. This could pave the way for Green-Red coalition government, which would make strange contortions in HX program, considering what two of the most likely coalition partners feel about HX-program in particular and “bad orange man and USA” in general
The party Vasemmistoliitto (Communists Lite) has made noices that amount of HX planes should be dropped to “36 or so” Their chair Ms Li Andersson feels the number of 64 HX fighters means getting ready for offensive war operations. (offensive war was her exact wording). Another dame in Left Annika Lapintie feels the same. On the other hand Right wing parties that are currently in power have announced that agreeing to 64 HX fighters is a must if one wants to be in government.
Update on 17th December: A professor of economics Dr Roope Uusitalo, thinks Airforce should only get something in order of 47 multirole fighters. Because of austerity reasons. He also points out that number of “64 is just arbitrary”. This is of course false. The Soviet Dictator Josef Stalin came to that conclusion by carefully considering what number of fighters can be quickly disposed of when they want to take over the country. So real number should be more than a hundred, as the experts of the field say.
These cries about revanshionist warfare might just be rethorics to appease own woting base and Kremlin Czar Mr Putin. But what would this mean in context of HX-Program?
First of all this would be good news for SAAB. SAAB is Swedish and, as long as Finnish lefties and greenies are considered, Sweden can do no wrong and so by extension SAAB. But as I have pointed out 64 is too few platforms for Finland, so 36 would be even more too few, and thus maybe things would not be as interesting for SAAB. Also this would hike up per unit cost for Finns because you would still build the factory and support system in Finland.
News would be good for Dassault and Rafale as well, but maybe not quite so good as to Swedes. As Britain is the prime contractor for Euro-fighter Typhoon that might spell some difficulties, but Germany, Spain and Italy would also exert pressure for Finns. I feel that this would, without a doubt, better situation for all European competitors. Internal pressure would maybe favor SAAB and “soft and cuddly NATO” with Sweden. External EU pressure might be split between France and Germany (plus Spain and Italy) by EU common procurement. “Other pressure” from UK, with whom there is defense co-operation.
These news would be really bad for F-35 A and F/A-18 E/F/G Super Hornet, because President Trump will still be in office until 2024 if miracles don’t happen. (No I do not believe YLEs and European Liberal Lefts views of “bad orange man”. I believe in month by month approval rating. THAT seems to be in President Trumps favor as of December 2018) And by contrary he can do no right if Leftie-Greenies are concerned in Europe. So This might be a considerable obstacle in when final decisions are being made.
But, how ever you cut it, 64 planes are just not enough for defense of Finland.